USA · Canada · Mexico — June 11, 2026

Who winsthe World Cup?

150 years of international football, 47,000 matches, one model. We predict every game from group stage to the final whistle — extra time and penalties included.

Predict a match See rankings
0
Matches analysed
0
Years of history
56.2%
Backtest accuracy
0
Simulations run
Elo-based power index

World Rankings

Ratings built from 47,000 international matches. Friendlies weight less than tournament games.

#TeamRatingChampion %Final %
10,000 Monte Carlo tournaments

Title Race

We simulated the entire World Cup 10,000 times. Here's how often each team lifts the trophy — and how far they get.

#Team ChampionFinalSemiQuarterR16
Probabilities reflect the current model. As real results come in during the tournament, these numbers will shift.
Poisson + Elo + penalty model

Match Predictor

Group game or knockout. Knockouts run the full route: 90 minutes, extra time, then penalties.

Configure match
VS
Drag to model injuries, form, fatigue or motivation. Negative = weaker than usual, positive = stronger. Your call.
Team 1 0
WeakerNormalStronger
Team 2 0
WeakerNormalStronger
Configure a match and run a prediction
Live tournament tracker

The Fixture

Enter real results as the World Cup unfolds. Flip the switch to feed them into the model — predictions update with reality.

Bracket tracker

Knockout Stage

Dropdowns suggest teams from your group results. Pick who advances, then enter the score.